Dynamic Belief Elicitation
نویسندگان
چکیده
At an initial time, individual forms a belief about future random outcome. As time passes, the may obtain, privately or subjectively, further information, until outcome is eventually revealed. How can protocol be devised that induces individual, as strict best response, to reveal at outset his prior assessment of both final and information flows he anticipates and, subsequently, what receives? The provide with payoffs depend only on realization reports. We develop framework design such protocols, apply it construct simple elicitation mechanisms for common dynamic environments. general: we show strategyproof protocols exist any number periods large sets. For these more general settings, build family based hierarchy choice menus, approximated by this family.
منابع مشابه
Dynamic Belief Elicitation∗
At t = 1, an expert has (probabilistic) information about a random outcome X. The expert obtains further information as time passes, up to t = N at which X is publicly revealed. (How) Can a protocol be devised that induces the expert, as a strict best response, to reveal at the outset his prior assessment of both X and the information flows he anticipates and, subsequently, what information he ...
متن کاملSupplementary Appendix to “ Dynamic Belief Elicitation ”
This Supplementary Appendix includes additional results and the proofs omitted from the main text. Throughout, references are to the main text and to the appendix of the main text, unless they include the prefix “SA.” It proceeds as follows. In Section SA.1, we provide several examples that illustrate the general method of the main text to special environments. In Section SA.2, we consider the ...
متن کاملLearning and Belief Elicitation: Observer Effects
This paper asks a simple methodological question about belief elicitation: Does asking subjects about their beliefs during a repeated game change the way subjects play the game? In particular, we ask if belief elicitation changes behavior in the direction of belief based learning models, away from reinforcement learning models. Based on a carefully designed laboratory experiment, we show that p...
متن کاملOntology Guided Dynamic Preference Elicitation
A challenge for preference based recommender systems is to elicit user preferences in an accurate and efficient manner. Eliciting preferences from the user in the form of a query that is then used to filter items from a database can result in a coarse recommendation with numerous results returned. The problem lies in the user’s knowledge concerning the items among which they are searching. Unle...
متن کاملElicitation of Expert Opinions for Constructing Belief Functions
This paper presents a method for constructing belief functions from elicited expert opinions expressed in terms of qualitative preference relations. These preferences are transformed into constraints of an optimization problem whose resolution allows the generation of the least informative belief functions according to some uncertainty measures. Mono-objective and Multiobjective optimization te...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Econometrica
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['0012-9682', '1468-0262']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta15293